Same old, same old….

It seems to me the great recession just keeps on giving, or should I say taking. Home repossessions will be topping 1 million, up from 804,000 in 2011. Total foreclosures fell 34% in 2011 national to 1.89 million, so we are still cleaning up inventories. Housing inventories are slowly going down , but only a few can really get credit to buy, are stable enough to purchase a house and or feel confident with the economy. The MEDIA will continue to report a very rosy picture, but the reality is still tepid, barely breathing. The houses that are selling are forclosures and distressed sales- don’t sell if you can help it. It still isn’t a good time. Things, the micro economies(house values) are improving, however the macro economies are NOT. The job markets are improving in certain areas, that weren’t affected to begin with, some house sales(pricing) are improving, however it is so diferent from area to area, Tucson is still considered declining overall. Watch out for the statistics from January because they are going to be ugly, it will be affecting all sorts of numbers- stocks, housing, and retail. Remember people buy when they feel confident. 2012 should be a better year, that means- stablization of prices generally speaking, however gas is going to affect people in a negative, way once again. That has a negative affect on how people feel about buying- it all runs together.
The greatest asset Tucson has is our weather – because boomers will come with money and THAT ALONE, is the future. It will grow our markets. At some point we WILL need more housing, apartments, inexpenisve first time homes, and single family residences. Yea, to the future of growth.
I have lived in Tucson my whole life and have watched the building cycles, this is an odd one- because of the continuation of negative influences. Prices won’t be increasing any time soon, but hopefully we will feel more confident. Several factors need to come together to make our market stronger. More lending flexibility(Frank Dodd regulations -government), lower cost of ownership(local taxes,government) , increase in educational values and a strongereducational system(local governement), and so it goes, there is a theme that we cannot readily fix. Several personal ideals come into play also, personal responsibility- (affording what you buy),being realistic about values going forward, and understaning what it takes to be a homeowner. Buying a homes is an investment with time and resources. Until these things are understood in the market the housing slump will not improve. It is slowly improving, but it could just continue this way until 2015 -flat. Then it becomes a TEN year business cycle, not a seven. Be involved understand real estate before you buy! Use a MAI appraiser to understand value before buying, or selling- real estate agents job is to SELL understand that fact- they don’t eat if they don’t sell!